Gold Falls Rs 10,757 From October Peak; Will November Bring Another Gold-Silver Record Rally? Analyst Decodes

Gold prices in India took an unexpected turn in October as the precious metal's relentless rally abruptly halted, followed by a sharp correction within just 15 days. While investors had hoped for a near-term surge beyond Rs 1.5 lakh, the recent pullback has cast uncertainty over the metal's short-term outlook. Analysts now expect gold and silver to trade within a broad range in the coming weeks.

Silver and gold prices may continue to trend in a range-bound manner in November, as a host of factors, including the US Fed Rate Cut, improving geopolitical situations, US Dollar movement, etc, are acting against the rally.

Factors That Can Impact Gold Rate in India

Comments from US Fed officials and updates on the US shutdown can also impact the sentiment around the gold price rally. According to Motilal Oswal's Commodity Report, the prices of the precious metals may trade in a broader range for November month.

Gold-silver ratio declined in October due to the decline in prices of the precious metals post Diwali. Gold-silver ratio is a simple measurement that indicates how many ounces of silver are required to purchase an ounce of gold.

Other than the reversal of gold-silver ratio, multiple other factors, like trade framework discussions between the US and China to ease trade tensions, expectation of delay in rare-earch licensing by China, developments around Beijing's plan to build a gold reserve, etc will also impact the gold price movement in future.

However, investors will closely track comments and plan of action between US and China, US Fed officials remarks on upcoming rate decisions, and update on US Shutdown resolution.

Gold Price Outlook For November

Gold rate in India is currently hovering close to Rs 12,202 per gram, ie Rs 1,22,020 per 10 gram on Friday, November 7. The yellow metal is likely to trade in a broader range within Rs 1,16,000 and Rs 1,24,000 in November. "However, the 116,000 level aligns with the upper bound of the channel, making it a potential accumulation zone, provided prices
manage to close on a positive note for a week above this level," noted Motilal Oswal Financial Services. However, the brokerage maintains an overall bullish stance on gold's momentum.

Gold Prices Can Fall Further If...

There is a chance that gold prices may fall further and loose their bullish momentum. An early indication of scenario would be gold prices falling further below Rs 1,12,000 per 10 gram.

"If the buying setup is initiated and prices close below 112000, the buying view will be negated and the bullish setup will no longer remain valid," as per Motilal Oswal report.

Silver Price Outlook For November

The prices of silver in November may continue to move upward but in a range-bound manner. Silver rate in India may hover between Rs 1,39,000 per kilogram to Rs 1,54,000.

"Any further breakout above Rs 154,000 could open the path toward Rs 163,000, while a breakdown below 139,000 may drag prices lower toward 130,000," added the brokerage in its report.